Automotive and Auto Parts Industry - Heavy Truck Industry Tracking Report: Waiting for the East Wind

The sharp decline in heavy truck-related stock prices after April honored our judgment at the beginning of the year. Although we can only make more money in the A-share market, we have not kept track of it during the period, because the grasp of investment opportunities depends in part on the close tracking of the industry. This report is a summary of our recent continuous tracking of heavy truck industry and heavy truck lightening, including but not limited to Yiwu, Linyi grassroots research, freight pricing research, and light weight research. For the heavy-duty truck industry, our current core view is: After the heavy-duty truck industry experiences a rapid decline in sales volume, the signs of stabilization at the bottom are constantly increasing. However, the reversal has not yet arrived. The “Road Safety Protection Regulations” makes the need for users to change vehicles. After months of significant increase, investment can focus on the left side of the high-quality company.

a) The judgment of bottoming. From the quantitative point of view, destocking came to an end; since the bottoming out in June, the chain continued to grow from July to August, and was basically the same month last month and August; the freight rates showed signs of stabilizing and rebounding, and there was a profit for users. Improvement; the fifth-grade expressway traffic volume of expressways increased positively after 6 months.

b) The reversal has not yet arrived. From the structural point of view, there is pressure on the industry inventory, and the overdue vehicles of dump trucks will become slow-moving vehicles, which will put pressure on the 3-4 quarterly statements of related companies; the growth of heavy-vehicle ownership will peak in the second half of last year, but the pressure is still there; next year The production capacity of mainstream enterprises is still newly released 5-10%, and the profitability of the industry is under pressure; diesel prices are high.

c) The "Road Safety Protection Regulations" evokes the need of users to change cars. Chachao will lead to changes in the heavy-duty truck model, and will enable users to pursue lightweight vehicles. Since July-August, the main models of the tractor 6*4 and 6*2 have significantly reduced curb weight, and the future lightweight space remains. Great. The current users have limited profitability and lack of motivation to change vehicles. However, once macroeconomic cooperation is provided in the future, the enthusiasm of users to change cars will be ignited, forming a resonance with macroeconomic policies.

The uniqueness of this report. We believe that the improvement of the research system is very important, and this can not be separated from the grasp of the research indicators. This report has in-depth excavation of inventory, freight index, lightweight reference indicators, from a variety of aspects to verify, and put forward their own views .

Investment ideas and suggestions. Automobile stocks are mainly based on top-down research methods. They focus on the industry and light companies. When the heavy-duty truck industry bottoms out, investors are advised to pay attention to the impact of changes in the structure of the industry on the competitiveness of the company. It is recommended that the operational management capabilities be prominent and light. Quantify the relative benefits of Foton Motor (600166.SH).

investment risk. The risk of heavy truck industry mainly comes from the long-term policy tightening, the end of the Chinese model, and the economy entering a long-term recession.