With only 20 days left in 2015, for most listed companies, the 2014 full-year harvest is basically determinable, and what kind of transcripts can be delivered to shareholders is equally convincing.
According to Wind data, as of December 8, 36 listed companies in the auto manufacturing industry issued a warning for the 2014 annual report. Among them, 25 companies reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, accounting for 69.4. %; 11 companies forecast a year-on-year decline in net profit, accounting for 30.6%.
Traditional energy bus sales fell. Among them, the companies whose performance declined year-on-year include Teljia, Dengyun, Zhejiang Shibao, Longji Machinery, Xingmin Steel Ring, BYD, Yueling, China Automotive Research and Longsheng.
It is estimated that in the year of Tellag, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will range from 11.05 million yuan to 19.34 million yuan, a year-on-year change of -60% to -30%. The reason for the change in performance is that due to the influence of the national new energy automobile industry policy, the sales volume of traditional energy bus vehicles has declined, and the sales volume of the company's and traditional energy bus automobile accessory products has declined, resulting in a decline in the company's operating income and belonging to the company's shareholders. Net profit decreased compared with the same period of last year.
“Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles will promote the healthy and rapid development of the new energy automobile industry. With the introduction of a series of rules, such as exemption from taxation, bus purchase of new energy vehicles, etc. will be new energy vehicles. Promotion and development continue to inject momentum." Liu Lixi, an analyst at Northeast Securities, believes.
He said that with the substantial increase in car ownership, the development of bus passenger cars has become an important task for local governments in urban governance, and new energy buses will continue to be promoted.
At the same time, in the first ten months of this year, China's new energy vehicles produced a total of 47,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of nearly five times. Among them, pure electric passenger cars produced 22,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 7 times, and plug-in hybrid passenger cars produced 11,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 20 times.
In the third quarterly report, BYD also predicted that the company's net profit change attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the whole year of 2014 was 430 million yuan to 50,000 yuan, a year-on-year change of -22.25% to -9.59%.
Regarding the reasons for the change in performance, BYD said that the competition in the domestic auto market remained fierce in the fourth quarter, which brought certain pressure on the Group's traditional car sales and profits. The new energy vehicle business is expected to maintain a good momentum of development. Thanks to continued policy support, both K9 and BYD Qin are expected to have good sales performance.
Commercial vehicles will usher in an inflection point next year. China Automotive Research expects the annual net profit to fall by about 10% compared with the same period of the previous year. The company pointed out that during the reporting period, the company's technical service business was affected by the industry's impact on the implementation of commercial vehicle emission regulations, and the new contract was down 13% year-on-year. At the same time, the key component business of rail transit was affected by the contract execution cycle. The year-on-year delivery decreased, resulting in a decrease in the company's main business revenue during the year.
At the same time, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first ten months, China's automobile production and sales were 19.2 million and 18.89 million, an increase of 7.93% and 6.58%. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 161,439 and 15.8644 million, up 11.2% and 9.76% year-on-year; the production and sales of commercial vehicles was 3,216,200 and 3,123,700, down 6.3% and 7.08% year-on-year.
It can be seen that the development of commercial vehicle manufacturers and related parts and components enterprises is still not very optimistic. However, Liu Lixi believes that "commercial vehicles, especially trucks, the switching of the national standard and the elimination of a large number of yellow-label old cars or the highlights of next year. Starting in 2015, the national three light trucks will stop selling, some due to the early layout of the country Four commercial vehicles, which are affected by sales volume, are expected to usher in a phased turning point in development."
He predicted that China's car sales growth in 2015 is about 5%-10%, lower than the growth rate in 2014. Among them, passenger car sales growth rate is 7%-12%, the demand for commercial vehicles, especially trucks, will continue to be sluggish, but taking into account the market demand brought by the massive elimination of old cars of yellow-label vehicles and the positive development of car enterprises China's output products, it is predicted that commercial vehicle sales are expected to achieve positive growth, with a growth rate of 0%-5%.
In his view, considering that China's auto ownership has entered a stage of rapid growth, transportation, energy, and environmental issues have become increasingly prominent, and the government has been unable to tolerate rapid growth in vehicle sales. However, as a pillar industry of the national economy, automobiles bear the heavy responsibility of consumer demand and require a certain growth rate.

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