Following the 2016 Q3 four-element LED chip out of stock price increase, Taiwanese manufacturers have added quaternary LED production capacity, in January 17 domestic LED chip leader Sanan Optoelectronics released price adjustment letter, raised the price of some white light products by 8%, LED chip price increase by RGB spreads to white light. This aspect reflects the structural imbalance of LED chips, that is, the display chip and lighting application LED chip price increase from RGB to white light, structural supply and demand imbalance appears after 2016 Q3 four yuan LED chip out of stock price increase, Taiwan factory has increased code four After the Yuan LED production capacity, in January 17th, the domestic LED chip leader Sanan Optoelectronics released a price adjustment letter, and raised the price of some white light products by 8%. The price increase of LED chips spread from RGB to white light. This aspect reflects the structural imbalance of LED chips, that is, display applications and lighting applications compete for GaN blue-green chip capacity. On the other hand, it reflects the strong downstream demand of the chip industry. According to the research feedback, the recent orders for white LED chips, packaging and lamps are in good condition, and the industry boom is on the rise, and the profitability of the company is gradually restored. Supply side: price warfare extrusion effect is obvious, industry competition pattern is improved According to statistics, the continuous production of LED chips factory in mainland China has made the proportion of oversupply of LED chips in 22 years as high as 22%. From 15Q1 to 16 years, Q1, mainstream LED chips Prices have fallen by more than 30%, and the price of packaged products has generally fallen by more than 20%. According to China Light Industry Network data, the cumulative loss of the national lighting industry in the first three quarters of 2015 was 16.66%. In contrast, domestic enterprises are better than foreign companies, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investment companies. In this competitive environment of survival of the fittest, following the exit of Samsung's LED lighting business in all markets outside of Korea in 2014, in 2016, internationally renowned manufacturers Philips, Osram and GE also withdrew from the Chinese market, providing more for the domestic LED industry. Large market space, improved industry competition. Taiwanese factory focuses on quad-chip market, GaN LED industry center shifts to mainland China due to the rise of small-pitch and IR sensing applications, Taiwanese four-element LED manufacturers actively expand quaternary capacity: Jingdian plans to expand production from 16Q2, Huashang Photovoltaic has concentrated its production capacity at four yuan for 16 years. At the same time, Jingdian and Cree began to reduce GaN production capacity in 16 years. Domestic large-scale plants began to invest in GaN production lines this year. Considering the purchase and commissioning cycle of equipment, the annual investment in MOCVD of local chip manufacturers increased by about 135. Taiwan, considering the exit of about 125 sets of crystal power, the global new equipment is limited in 17 years, and domestic growth is less than 11%. On the one hand, because it needs 2 times the blue-green production capacity to match the red and yellow production capacity in the full-color display, on the other hand, due to the withdrawal of international manufacturers, the downstream manufacturers have provided more domestic alternative space, and local manufacturers undertake the GaN LED industry center. The progress of the transfer has accelerated. Demand side: small pitch, Micro-LED, IR, lamp market rise, lighting project welcomes development opportunities In the domestic LED industry demand structure, 2016 general lighting accounted for 47.6%, landscape lighting accounted for 13.5%, backlight application accounted for It is 12.1%, the display is 12.8%, and the car lighting is 1.4%. Referring to the growth rate in the past two years, it is assumed that the growth rate of general lighting in 15 years is 15%, the growth rate of landscape lighting is 7%, the growth rate of small-pitch LED is 70%, the growth rate of display screen (except small pitch) is 4%, and the growth rate of vehicle is 6%. The domestic LED industry demand growth rate is about 10.44%. Considering the impact of the 15-year LED product price decline, the demand growth rate should be higher than the output value growth rate. With the rise of small-pitch LEDs, Micro-LEDs, IRs, and the market for lamps and lights, and the good development opportunities for lighting projects under the fiscal expansion cycle, the demand for LEDs is accelerating. In 17 years, only about 26 MOCVDs will be added for small-pitch LEDs. equipment. The demand for replenishment stocks is determined, and the consumption upgrade is good. Leading manufacturers LED industry has entered the inventory digesting stage since 2012. According to Shenwan LED sector data, from 15Q3, the inventory turnover days of the industry decreased from 117.94 days to 102.92 days of 16Q3, the lowest since 2009Q3. Position, a new round of replenishment demand in the future will push up the industry boom. In addition, we believe that good money to expel bad money is happening on the demand side. When the price of LED bulbs drops to the comfort zone of consumers, benefiting from the consumption upgrade, some small and medium-sized manufacturers will reduce their ability to increase their purchase intention through price differences. The profit model of small profits but quick turnover is challenged, and the phenomenon of small profits and low sales will increase from the demand side. The competitive pressure of some small and medium-sized manufacturers has accelerated the industry's reshuffle and favored leading manufacturers. Suggested attention: Sanan Optoelectronics (full color LED chip faucet), dry photo photoelectric (domestic quaternary LED chip faucet), Mulinsen (domestic LED chip packaging faucet), Jufei Optoelectronics (domestic LED backlight module faucet), Lia Germany (domestic LED display, lighting engineering leader), Chau Ming Technology. Risk warning: The growth rate of downstream emerging applications is lower than expected, and the domestic replacement speed of GaN chips is lower than expected.
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