In March, the chemical market showed a noticeable upward trend, with rising prices becoming the dominant theme. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, out of 48 monitored products, 24 experienced an increase, accounting for half of the total. Thirteen products remained stable, while only 11 saw a decline compared to the previous month. This marked a significant shift from the previous months, where downward trends were more prevalent. The market appeared to be emerging from a prolonged period of weakness, with a sense of optimism beginning to take hold. The contrast between January’s performance and March’s recovery was striking. For instance, sulfur and epichlorohydrin, which had dropped by around 10% in January, rebounded sharply, gaining over 30% in March. Similarly, several products that had been on the decline list in February saw a strong reversal, climbing to the top of the gainers’ list. This was largely driven by low refinery operations post-holiday, leading to increased demand from traders looking to restock. Another notable trend was the reduced number of declining products. In February, 11 products fell, while in March, the number dropped significantly. Moreover, the magnitude of declines also lessened, with only one product falling by more than 10% in March, compared to six in January. This indicated a stabilization in the market. However, not all products followed the upward trend. Some, like stearic acid, DOP, and light soda ash, which had shown a slight recovery at the end of February, struggled this month and saw a drop instead. This was due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels. Many manufacturers had built up stock before the holiday, and the slow consumption of these inventories contributed to market stagnation. DOP, for example, initially rose after the holiday but soon faced a price decline as demand failed to keep pace. While the market seemed to be entering a "warm spring" after the Spring Festival, long-term challenges remain. The global economic situation continues to deteriorate, with the International Monetary Fund predicting a potential global GDP contraction of 0.5% to 1% in 2009—marking the first negative growth in 60 years. Advanced economies are expected to face deep recessions, with the U.S. and Japan experiencing declines of 2.6% and 5.8%, respectively. Domestically, China’s economic conditions have not improved significantly. Although some industries show signs of recovery due to government policies, overall demand remains weak. Imports continued to fall, reflecting sluggish domestic consumption. In the first two months of the year, total trade volume dropped by 27.2%, with imports declining by 34.2%. Globally, industrial production in the U.S. fell by 1.4% in February, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. The utilization rate of manufacturing equipment dropped to 70.9%, far below historical averages. This weak industrial output further limits external demand, affecting exports of Chinese plastics and related products. Despite short-term fluctuations, the chemical market still faces the challenge of weak demand and oversupply. While there is hope for recovery, it depends heavily on global economic stability and policy responses.

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