China Drying Network News With the increase of pure benzene price by 200 yuan (t price, the same below) on November 9th, the domestic phenol refinery has also increased at the same time. The current mainstream market price in East China is 11150-11250 yuan. However, as a whole, the domestic phenol market has limited demand, losses have continued, and prices have risen entirely due to the cost of “solo†support.
From the end of August to the end of September this year, the price of phenol in East China steadily increased. The importer's home in Tianjin Zhongsha shut down and overhaul, the raw material benzene kept rising strongly, and the Fed pushed QE3 to support the market actively. The market slowly climbed to 11,500. ~ 11,600 yuan, an increase of 500 to 600 yuan. From late September, the price of crude oil fell steadily, and market confidence fell. Plus, Li Huayi’s new plant was about to be put into production, and after the National Day holiday, the arrival of goods in the port center and other cash markets weighed on pressure. Some mainstream importers took the lead in leading down, dragging the market into long positions. One month in the overcast channel.
At the end of October, pure benzene and raw materials prices rose sharply. Sinopec East China's pure benzene price rose to 10,000 yuan, and the difference between phenol and benzene was only 800 yuan, and the normal price difference between the two should be 2,000 yuan. The import price of phenol was between 1,400 and 1,450 U.S. dollars (CFR, China's main port), or about 11,300 yuan, which was inconsistent with the domestic trade price. The loss of production companies and importers was severe. On October 30th, due to insufficient supply of steam due to boiler failure, Jianye Group’s subsidiary, Yeyou Chemical (Yangzhou) Co., Ltd., reduced the load of 320,000 tons/year to 50%, and it is expected to last for 15 days. The news stimulates importers to push forward. Intentions of the market, signs of a rebound in market conditions.
Although the recent phenol market rebounded, but the market outlook, market participants are optimistic about the short-term and there is no lack of caution.
The favorable outlook for phenol is still concentrated on the cost level: At present, the price of pure benzene remains high, and domestic manufacturers still have a willingness to push up. Foreign suppliers also reduce losses through parking, production cuts, or export to Southeast Asia, India, etc., and follow-up imports in addition to contracts. Out of stock, spot trading is expected to decline significantly. In short, the supply of internal and external disks is tight, and the pure benzene market does not rule out the possibility of further increase. Although the supply of another raw material, propylene, will increase, it will have little effect on the phenol market.
The overall supply of phenol in the domestic market will be dominated by bearish supply. Shandong Lihua Yiwei Yuan's annual output of 350,000 tons of phenone plant, since the beginning of production in early October after the start of production stabilized at 90% up and down, daily production reached 500 to 600 tons, has formed a three-footed momentum with the Sino-Sand Tianjin, Yanshan Petrochemical, North It is self-evident that the market supply has increased significantly, and the pressure to digest is self-evident. Once the price difference between East China and Hong Kong is formed, it cannot be ruled out that the source of supply will flow to East China. In addition, Gaoqiao Petrochemical's annual output of 200,000 tons of phenolic ketone plant is scheduled to restart in early November, one week ahead of its downstream production capacity of 120,000 tons of bisphenol A plant, which means 2,000 tons of phenol will enter the spot market.
At the same time, the downstream demand for phenol is not satisfactory. The fourth quarter is the traditional low season for downstream phenolic resin and bisphenol A. If the follow-up price increase is too fast, the downstream factory cost pressure will be difficult to pass, and it will easily lead to decline in start-ups, and end demand will shrink. At present, the market of the bisphenol A spot market fluctuates, and the mainstream negotiations in East China are at 13250 to 13300 yuan, which is 100 yuan less than last week. Second-hand businesses are waiting to see the market and the participation rate has dropped.
In short, the phenol spot market is heating up, but demand still needs to be followed up. The short-term domestic phenol market is expected to maintain a stable trend, and costs and demand continue to confront each other. The market outlook needs to pay more attention to the downstream market and the process.
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