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Sustained growth in production prices, slowing trend of increase—Analysis of the national oil and chemical industry situation in July

According to the latest report from the Information Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the import situation for oil and chemical products in July remained robust, driven by both rising demand and cost pressures. The industry has maintained strong momentum in production and sales this year, as economic activities continue to align with macroeconomic control measures, leading to sustained demand for petrochemical goods. Despite high input costs—such as those for petroleum, coal, electricity, and transportation—the overall price level of the industry has remained elevated. However, due to rapid price increases and declining downstream affordability, many product prices have started to slow down, resulting in a more volatile market environment. In July, out of 64 key tracked products, 58 showed year-on-year growth, accounting for 90.6%, while only 5 (7.9%) declined. Among the 149 products monitored, 111 saw price increases, or 74.5%, while 22 fell, or 15.3%. Nearly half of the products experienced fluctuating prices, with 12 remaining stable. Oil and gas production continued to grow rapidly in July. Crude oil output reached 15.456 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year, while natural gas production hit 3.95 billion cubic meters, rising 19.2% compared to the same period last year. After two months of slower growth, refined oil production rebounded in July, with crude processing reaching 24.624 million tons, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. Refinery output was 14.75 million tons, up 7.1% year-on-year, with gasoline production at 4.523 million tons and diesel at 9.314 million tons. Agrochemical production also performed well, with sulfur and phosphate output increasing by 21.1% and 35.3%, respectively. Fertilizer output rose 17.5% to 4.276 million tons, with nitrogen fertilizer reaching a record high. However, pesticide output grew more slowly, with crude drug production up just 7.7%. Basic chemical raw materials saw significant growth, including sulfuric acid, nitric acid, and hydrochloric acid. "Two alkali" production increased due to new capacity, with caustic soda up 23.7% and soda ash up 14.2%. Ethylene and benzene production also surged, with ethylene up 46.3% and pure benzene up 45.5%. Synthetic material output expanded notably, with synthetic resin production rising 23.8% to 1.762 million tons. PVC, polyethylene, and polypropylene all saw strong growth, while synthetic rubber and fiber output also increased significantly. Despite the overall growth, price trends began to stabilize in July. Crude oil and refined product prices hit record highs, with domestic gasoline and diesel reaching 4,400 and 3,870 yuan per ton, respectively. Fertilizer prices remained high, with urea hitting a historical peak. Basic chemicals and synthetic resins also saw mixed price movements, with some products experiencing declines despite overall high levels. The rubber market saw stabilization, with natural rubber prices slightly down but synthetic rubber rebounding sharply. Overall, the oil and chemical sector remains dynamic, with strong production growth balanced by fluctuating market conditions.

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