2013 is a very year of great significance for the LED lighting industry. After the investment heat, price war, bankruptcy, and integration tide, the LED lighting market is gradually entering the stage of rational development. At present, under the spur of global bans and increasing market demand, a wave of luminaire replacement is on the rise. In this revolutionary battle of traditional lighting, LED has undoubtedly become the biggest beneficiary.
In the market demand, 2013 has become the first year of LED lighting, and 2014 is the key year for LED lighting development. In the upcoming 2014, industry insiders have predicted that the LED lighting industry will usher in A new round of outbreaks.
Prices continue to decline, lighting demand will increase by nearly two years, the global lighting market is beginning to show a whitening effect, while being affected by upstream chip technology and rapid price decline, the gap between LED lighting and traditional lighting products is gradually narrowing, downstream LED lighting The decline in product prices has become an indisputable implementation. At present, the price of LED lighting products is declining at a rate of about 20 per year. In many areas, the minimum price of LED bulbs that replace 40W or 60W is even less than 10 dollars, and it is gradually approaching the price of traditional energy-saving lamps.
According to the statistics of global research institutions, the price of some 40W LED products replaced by the global market in October 2013 is more obvious. The lowest price of brand lamps in various regions has fallen below 10 US dollars, and the average price gap between different regions is gradually narrowing. Especially in the UK, 11 has fallen sharply. Some of the original high-priced items were lowered, while low-priced items continued to fall. Brands such as OSRAM, Samsung, and LG are selling products that are close to or below $10 in the UK. The lowest price for replacing 40W goods in the region has now reached $8.1. In the US region, in addition to the low-cost bulbs recently introduced by CREE and Wal-Mart, Philips and Ecosmart have also sold products of less than $10. The current minimum price for the replacement of 40W in the region has also been reduced to $9.
At present, global LED lighting products are gradually decreasing at different speeds. There are two major factors influencing the price of LED products and driving down prices: First, the increase in technology has led to a decline in LED production costs. In recent years, the investment in LED upstream chips has been huge. At present, the price of chips has dropped to 30 in 2010. At the same time, new technologies are emerging. Philips Lumileds, Toshiba, TSMC solid-state lighting, crystal and round unpackaged chips have been launched. And become a powerful weapon for future LEDs to face price pressure. The second aspect is because the huge prospect of LED lighting has attracted the influx of many capitals, and the increasingly fierce market competition has made price cuts an important competitive means for LED companies. In addition, the participation of international LED giants such as Philips, Panasonic and CREE has further provoked the price war between international LED brands.
The relevant research center believes that thanks to the advantage of the gradual lowering of the price of the upper and middle reaches, the average price of LED lighting products in the world will still have room to fall in 2014. It is expected that the price of LED indoor lighting products in China will drop by about 20 per year in 2013-2014. It is expected to usher in a new round of strong outbreaks. In the past, in the lighting market, the penetration rate of household lighting was the lowest. That is because the price of LED lighting products was too high in the past, and it took many years for home replacement to recover. However, with the price reduction of LED bulbs, governments have successively disabled incandescent lamps. Coupled with the global economic recovery, it will promote LED lighting fermentation. It is expected that the demand for LED lighting market will increase significantly in 2014. At the same time, the price decline will also accelerate industry consolidation and survival of the fittest, forcing companies to reduce costs, strengthen management, optimize resources, integrate supply chains, and enhance their competitiveness to meet the market outbreak.
Beyond backlighting, lighting has become the number one LED application in 2014 According to the latest market report released by global market research institutions, due to the huge business opportunities in the LED lighting industry, global lighting manufacturers have accelerated their pace of entering the LED field, causing LED lighting products terminals. Sales prices have fallen rapidly and consumer acceptance has increased. In 2013, China's LED lighting market has a growth potential of 24, 96, 28 and 46 in commercial, home, industrial and outdoor lighting, and has gradually entered thousands of households.
The rapid decline in prices directly affects the penetration rate of the LED lighting products terminal market. At present, the penetration rate of LED lighting in the global market is rapidly increasing. It is estimated that the output value of LED lighting market in 2014 is 35.3 billion US dollars, which is 47.8 compared with 2013. It is estimated that the penetration rate of LED lighting in 2014 will also increase from 8-10 this year to 32.7, in which the bulb and lamp penetration rate will reach 20 and 15.
In terms of the application type of products, the growth rate of alternative light source products is the most obvious. Bulb lamps and lamps are the most popular alternative light source types in the market, accounting for 38 and 25. respectively of 2013 LED lighting products. The demand for LED lighting product types will gradually rise, especially in combination with smart lighting applications, which will usher in a very broad market space.
Under the support of social requirements and favorable policies of energy conservation and emission reduction in various countries around the world, LED lighting products have begun to gradually replace traditional lighting products. Especially in the field of LED bulbs for home use, the international manufacturers have actively carried out multi-channel distribution, and the LEDs can be seen everywhere in stores, supermarkets, and specialty stores. It is reported that IKEA has also begun to distribute a large number of LED bulbs to the passage. In addition, traditional lighting manufacturers such as Philips' attitude towards LED lighting has become more active than in the past. Therefore, industry insiders expect that the growth of LED bulbs in 2014 will be considerable under the influence of major lighting brand manufacturers and terminal channels.
Li Bingjie, chairman of Taiwan's Jingyuan Optoelectronics, said that the penetration rate of LED lighting will exceed 10 this year. It is expected to double again next year and the penetration rate will be 20, so the actual contribution of LED to the lighting industry will be more significant next year. At the same time, Yiguang Chairman Ye Yufu also pointed out that benefiting from the decline in LED prices, environmental protection and energy conservation considerations, and government policy subsidies, LED lighting demand is rapidly increasing, penetration rate is faster than expected, and it is estimated that by 2014, lighting will exceed display and Backlighting has become the first major application for LEDs.
The policy is strong, the new wave of replacement tides is gradually rising with the global incandescent lamp bans, and the LED replacement tide is on the rise. The important trend in the global lighting market in 2013 is the rapid decline in the price of alternative lighting products. To replace the tide of global LED lighting products.
In China, a global LED application country, since 2012, the country has released the “Planning of Incandescent Lamps Roadmap†and decided to gradually ban the import and sale of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps from October 1, 2012. In 2013, the Chinese government further supported the LED industry. The State Council’s “Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Industry†and the Sixth Committee “Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Planning†were successively issued, which clarified the important position of LED lighting in energy saving and emission reduction. . In addition, the Chinese government is also working hard to promote the development of the LED lighting industry through subsidy policies and an active role.
In the European and American markets, starting from 2014, European and American countries began to phase out the 40-60W incandescent bulbs with the largest consumption in the civilian market, providing a favorable opportunity for the popularization of LED lighting products. This will also stimulate global LED lighting manufacturers to accelerate the pace of layout of LED lighting, and further push up the global LED lighting penetration rate. The US government's support for LED lighting is gradually increasing, and the number of subsidies for energy stars and other lamps has increased rapidly, which has led to further reduction in the price of LED lamps. CREE and other manufacturers are optimistic about the development of the LED lighting market in 2014, and expect that the sales growth of replacement lamps will become the focus of the next business growth. In Europe, where the market is relatively mature, although large-scale subsidy policies have not been seen, its high electricity prices and differences in light culture have made the demand for commercial lighting and outdoor architectural situation lighting applications continue to exist. In the next few years, with the impact of the comprehensive ban policy of incandescent bulbs, it is estimated that the market will continue to show steady growth.
As an industrial power in the LED field, Japan has also played a very important role in promoting the development of the world LED industry. As early as 14 years ago, Japan has begun to implement the 21st Century Light Plan to promote the development and industrialization of semiconductor lighting technology. It is one of the first countries in the world to start supporting the LED industry policy. In recent years, with the support of the Japanese government, the LED lighting industry has grown rapidly. At the same time, Japan's domestic awareness of energy conservation is soaring, especially after the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred more than two years ago, the government has proposed a low-carbon society (energy saving and carbon reduction). Among them, LED lighting products have become popular at a rapid rate and have become representative of energy-saving products.
In addition, in emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Vietnam, Russia and other countries and regions, various plans and drafts have also been introduced to support the development of the LED lighting industry. The demand for LED lighting products in these regions is obviously rising, and the LED lighting market is showing rapid growth, especially in the LED public lighting and commercial lighting markets.
According to GSCResearch, LED lighting is currently on the eve of the outbreak, and the penetration from 15-60 will be completed in the next 1-3 years, and a large number of LED lighting market demand will be released. On the one hand, favorable support policies and rapidly falling product prices have directly driven the rapid growth of the LED lighting market, but on the other hand, the current LED lighting industry still has overcapacity, price wars, rising costs, and channel construction investment. A large number of problems, as well as the dilemma of increasing income and increasing profits, have also caused some listed companies to face bottlenecks in development. In the early stage of the LED lighting era, how to solve these problems by LED lighting companies has become the focus of attention.
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