A 129-year-old industry is on the verge of change. New technologies and models are being explored from Siberia to the Cape of Good Hope. As a core force that has driven the changes in the global automotive landscape in the past 15 years, China has already taken the lead. Subversive and unsubversed, fissile and coexisting in this era. In addition to reason, what else do we need?

"Automobile Commune" Wei Jinqiao / Wen

On the evening of January 3, 2015, I boarded Air India's IA348 flight from the prosperous Shanghai Pudong Airport. It took about 6 hours to land at Delhi Airport. Then I transferred to the holy city Bodh Gaya. A thin middle-aged man held me. The pinyin of the name is waiting at the spartan GAYA airport. I greeted me with ambiguous English and greeted me. I sat in the best Toyota INNOVA business car in the local area. On the two sides of the road to the Gaya 30 minutes from the airport, Maruti Suzuki was arranged irregularly. Nearly 10 car 4S stores including Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, TATA and Ford.

In December last year, India hit the biggest increase in recent years, with car sales reaching 260,000 units, up 11.7% year-on-year. This also directly changed the Indian car market for three consecutive years. The annual sales reached 3.18 million units, compared with 2013. The increase is about 1%.

At the moment, in Moscow, 8900 km from Bodh Gaya, many Russians flocked to various 4S stores in the suburbs of Moscow. Most of them directly took advantage of the large amount of cash and snapped up a small number of exhibition cars in the exhibition hall.

In December of this year, the Russian auto market ended its negative growth for 11 consecutive months. Under the impetus of the devaluation of the ruble, Russians poured into the stores to buy various consumer goods. Electric appliances and automobiles became the first choice for Russians to preserve their value, which directly promoted Russia’s Sales volume increased by 2.4% to 270,000 units, but the annual sales volume of the Russian auto market, which is hard to return, is still down 10.3% to 2.49 million units. This is only about 1/10 of the 23.5 million units of Chinese cars worldwide, and only the highest sales in Russia. Half of the 5 million. The local brand Lada Lada struggled to maintain the market's first with a 15.5% share, but the annual sales fell 15.1%, and the shares of Kia, Renault and Japanese cars in the Russian market climbed against the trend.

This year, after five years of continuous decline in the European market, it rebounded for the first time in 2014. In 2014, the US auto market grew for the third consecutive year, with 16.3 million units, an increase of 6%, the highest sales year since 2007. .

On January 3, 2015, Toyoda was once again on the cover of BusinessWeek. On the screen, he danced and felt full of joy. Toyota decided to bet the future of new energy in a hydrogen-powered car called the brand new Mira. On, "Nothing, 15 years ago, when Puris just came out, everyone was like a monster." For the irony from Mary Barra, Musk and Ghosn, Toyoda replied with a smile.

In this year, the global automobile production value of the German automobile industry surpassed that of Japanese automobiles in an all-round way. Manufacturing not only became the largest industry supporting the German economy, but also the most important source of foreign trade profits. In this year, Germany released a new roadmap for the new strategy of Industry 4.0. The new industrial blueprint for manufacturing, the Internet, the Internet of Things and intelligent technologies will be based on the technology and needs of the next 20 years, and the Germanic people will continue to occupy the highest point of global industrial manufacturing.

Ironically, the Germans returned to the domestic industrial 4.0 program to support the future through the excess profits earned by multinational companies such as Siemens, Bosch, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen in the Chinese industry 2.0 and 3.0, but in this value chain. China was toughly excluded.

When it is said that the world's largest white goods market can't make a Japanese-style rice cooker, when the world's largest auto market is still unable to realize the original development of the chassis and engine, when we did not produce a vehicle and parts with real international capabilities. Company, we don't even have a globally influential auto industry manager, media person. Sometimes, the Chinese dream is helpless in the face of making dreams. Chinese cars are still in the mirage, pushing down and sorrowing.

In other words, when our 30-year joint venture did not achieve the good intention of “technology for the market”, we were keen to acquire realism that was more profitable than equilibration, trying to “turn over the road” in the field of new energy or smart cars. The magicalism, as well as the joyful enthusiasm for every bit of Tesla, but the gibberish and questioning contemporary cynicism of BYD's strides, are grotesque but naked in the past and will continue to exist in the future.

Hi, is it a good time to subvert?

"When are you going to make this industry the industry's number one, come back to me and talk about subversion." In early January, Huawei's head Ren Zhengfei said to the people who just entered the PV market. In this impetuous era, how many people have the cautiousness and perseverance of Ren Zhengfei and Huawei?

The terms “subversion,” “redefined,” and “changing the pattern” are all in the car circle of the past year, from Tesla to Xiaomi, from Musk to Lei Jun, from Apple to Android, all in the car market. 10 trillion US dollars of business opportunities throughout the year. This opportunity is a huge temptation brought by the switch from traditional energy to new energy and the dual thrust of the Internet of Things to the evolution of the Internet of Vehicles.

This is the biggest transformation that the automotive industry has faced in 129 years, because it is not only a revolution in the power of traditional internal combustion engines, but also a transformation of automotive intelligence based on IT technology. This unprecedented change is strikingly combined with the process of Chinese society. The smog that has been going on for many years in the core economic circle has led to environmental demands, leading to demand for new energy vehicles; advances in domestic Internet technology and Internet of Things technology, the emergence of automotive smart technology, and the overlap of the two forces will be on the Chinese automotive industry. The future will have far-reaching implications.

In 2014, e-commerce was another fashionable word after “dealer anti-water”. From the media to the business school case course, the possibility of auto commerce to subvert 20,000 car dealers across the country was discussed enthusiastically. Does the car e-commerce conference have more say in 2015? Will the automotive ecosystem between component suppliers, OEMs, distributors and media become more balanced and sustainable in 2015?

Relatively fast-moving and electronic products, including Suning, Gome, Wal-Mart, Taobao, and Jingdong, these channels have established a strong position in many industries that almost surpasses the manufacturers themselves, but the power of this channel and the leading force in the industry have not yet Infiltrated into the Chinese automobile manufacturing industry. E-commerce platform built by Easy Car, Auto House, etc., will be more effective in 2015?

This is indeed a series of problems. In the ecological circle of the automobile, whether you are a standard factory for screws, a fully automated assembly workshop, or a small car wash booth on the roadside, it has formed an ecological relationship for many years. They were broken one by one.

But at least this year, the words of the Tesla renegade in the auto industry have been overturned. Musk’s electric vehicles have had at least five natural or collisional fires on a global scale. Within a year, he also China's CE0 changed three places; although the Nissan electric car LEAF set a new sales record this year, Nissan CE0 Ghosn publicly acknowledged that the development of electric vehicles is "unsatisfactory."

This year, more and more outsiders are in the automotive industry. The latest players are Botai and LeTV. The former is an advertising company + component supplier, and the latter is a fast-growing video and hardware manufacturing company.

Will they create a new miracle in 2015? Let's take a look back at history. "As long as we start, it is change." In 2009, the pioneer of auto e-commerce, Ford's former CE0, and Australian Nasser were ambitious in his huge office in Dearborn. To the media, two years later, he suddenly left, leaving the dream broken.

Tens of millions of entanglements

Some people are full of ambition to subvert the present, and someone will hope to change the future. So, when Mirai took the lead in selling in the Japanese market on December 15 last year, Akio Toyoda smiled and stood in the dream of changing the car of the future – just like his father for 15 years. Before the bold embrace of the Prius.

However, Zhang’s troubles are not in Japan, nor in the United States, where he is reviving, but the Chinese business he promoted. He always said that "China is the most important", but the Chinese market has not reached the standard for three consecutive years. In 2015, the glory of Toyota's world's largest auto company will once again face the risk of losing again, the winner? Nature is the ambitious Pi皮ch and his majesty.

The figures announced on January 21 this year have revealed Toyota's concerns that the auto giant sold more than 10.23 million units in 2014, breaking sales for the second consecutive year and defending its position as the industry leader. Volkswagen, which followed closely, sold 10.14 million units worldwide last year. Many media outlets around the world, including the Japanese media, believe that this year, Volkswagen is expected to continue to maintain strong growth in China and Europe, and Toyota's potential in these two markets faces many uncertain risks. Therefore, Toyota is likely to be overtaken by the public to give up the first throne. Toyota has warned shareholders that domestic demand in Japan will decline, and Toyota's global new car delivery in 2015 may drop 1% to 10.15 million units. It is entirely possible for Volkswagen to take a step closer to the world's number one goal by expanding its market share in China and its new car offensive in the US market.

GM has passed the incomparable 2014, the domestic market has been recalled, the Chinese market lost the market champion, the new product Cruze global pre-cooling, Cadillac's global extension road, more rugged than imagined, all this, Let the new CEO, Mary, be overwhelmed.

In 2014, GM's global recall of more than 30 million vehicles not only set a new height for global auto companies to recall, but also made Mary have to face several face-to-face questions from Washington transportation agencies and parliaments, behind which the recalls were exposed. It is a systemic trouble for GM's global supply chain, which not only drags its pace, but also makes Toyota and Volkswagen even further.

However, in 2014, GM delivered a fairly good answer in the world and China. In 2014, GM sold 9.92 million vehicles worldwide, creating a record high for the second consecutive year, up 2% from 2013. The good news of GM is almost entirely from China and the United States. Sales in the Chinese market increased by 12% year-on-year, reaching the highest level of 3.53 million in history, and the sales volume in the North American market in 2014 was 3.41 million. In addition, bad news came from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia. Opel’s 10 years of losses continued. Cadillac and Chevrolet were completely defeated in Europe, relying too much on China and the US General Motors. It is still difficult in 2015. Close to the leaders Toyota and Volkswagen.

Too much dependence on the Chinese market? This is nothing. Of the 10 million global sales of Volkswagen, 3.7 million are from China. This ratio is almost the same as that of General Motors’ 9.35 million of the 9.92 million. Except Toyota’s sales in China is less than 1/10 of the world. Big brands, including Hyundai-Kia, Nissan and Peugeot Citroen, have already been promoted to their largest market.

Luxury threesome

This ratio is even more pronounced in luxury brands. In 2014, the total number of luxury car markets in China exceeded 1.8 million, an increase of over 24% year-on-year. However, the growth rate has slowed significantly since the third quarter of last year. It is expected that the final increase of luxury brands in China will be over 20% in 2014.

“In 2014, the luxury car market achieved a growth rate of more than 20%, but it was exchanged for price.” In mid-January, Zhang Weijie, general manager of FAW-Volkswagen, said, “The average discount rate of the luxury car market reached in December last year. 12.7%, this is a kind of damage to the trust of the value chain."

Reflection, from Audi to BMW, "BMW wants to grow together with our partners." At the beginning of January, the BMW 5 Series electric car was on the market, Ange did not directly answer the topic of huge subsidies of 5.1 billion yuan, only to the distant 400 The dealer showed up.

2014 is the end of the luxury brand “Golden 15 Years”, which means that this market has ended with an average increase of more than 20% over the past 15 years. "Automobile Commune" judged that since 2015, the growth rate of luxury cars has been close to that of passenger cars, and it has entered the single-digit growth rate since 2018 at the latest.

Although it has suffered from parallel imports, anti-monopoly and dealers' anti-water attacks, 2014 is still another harvest season for ABB in China. Audi sales reached 580,900 units, BMW China sold 456,000 units, and Mercedes-Benz has 288,000 units. The results continued to narrow the gap with BMW, while also expanding the distance from the fourth Jaguar/Land Rover.

However, the fight between Audi and BMW not only shakes the price system of the entire luxury car, but also passes the evil through the butterfly effect to the entire automobile market. When Audi Motors tried to close the gap with BMW in the world, BMW Brilliance made the sales of domestic BMW 5Li closer to the domestic A6L. BMW's financial report shows that although China has only about a quarter of global sales, BMW's business in China is stable and contributes nearly half of global profits. This is the case in 2012, and in 2013 and 2014.

In 2015, what kind of drama will luxury brands continue to perform in China? ABB, which ends the digital game, will provide a demonstration effect for the recovery and reasonable return of the market in 2015. Although Volvo, Jaguar Land Rover and Resas are willing to fight for the position of the second echelon leader, no one will continue to fight for price and inventory. The way of transfer, blindly do high sales goals.

However, no one ignores the figure of 73.9%. This is a number that makes Volvo, Jaguar/Land Rover and Lexus a nightmare. This is the share of ABB's luxury car market in China in 2014, which is down 2.6 percent from 76.5% in 2013. A percentage, but this is enough for the Lincoln and DS who have entered the market to collapse inside – especially in 2015, when the growth of the luxury car market is about to slow down significantly.

ABB's status can't be shaken. In 2015, there are not many questions in this market. Will Infiniti still be as crazy as the previous two years and chase after cost? Will the carols be put to death and then born? DS said that its 2015 annual meeting will double from 25,000 in 2014, but I remember that as early as the end of 2013, DS hoped that with the help of DS5 LS and DS6, there would be 50,000 harvests in 2014, it seems, DS put this heavy hope in 2015 to complete.

Fast is slow

After China, where is the next hot spot? This is not only the answer that multinational company CE0 needs to know, but also the future demand of national brands trying to go abroad.

“Every month, there are more than 80 cars sold.” The Maruti Suzuki store, less than 5 kilometers from the Bodh Gaya Zhengjue Tower, is filled with a large 4S shop on the ground that covers more than 15 acres. A variety of new Suzuki cars and repair fault cars.

This kind of scene is familiar, just like when I first started working in the automotive industry in 2003, I saw it in any medium-sized city in Songjiang, Suzhou, Foshan and the mainland, India and Russia, as well as distant South Africa, Brazil, and China. The BRICS (BRIC) is still far from entering a mature automobile society. The huge population of Indonesia, the young Muslim countries and the vast car virgin land of the African continent are the paradise for the future development of the automobile industry.

At the beginning of 2015, data released by the Indian government showed that the number of Japanese investment companies in India increased by 13% in 2014, and the number of Japanese companies in India increased from 1,072 in 2013 to 1,209 in 2014. It is car and transportation. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce in the second half of last year, Japan’s investment in China fell to the lowest in five years. Suzuki opened the third factory in India in Modi’s hometown. The negotiations between Honda Motor and the Myanmar government’s new factory are coming to an end.

Three years ago, the Libyan rebels set up submachine guns on the domestic Great Wall pickup truck. The Islamic State IS militants crossed the desert on the Toyota Tundra pickup truck. The Mercedes-Benz Unimoka large commercial vehicle became the transport vehicle of the peacekeeping force. These vehicles and weapons There is a strangely civilized and barbaric society. One day in the New Year, Akio Toyoda invited Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the Mirai platform of the hydrogen-powered car that had just been off the assembly line, once again becoming the mouth of the Chinese attacking this great car company.

Politics and economy, tradition and innovation, religion and nation, hatred and tolerance, state and doctrine, in our vast global village, symbiosis and coexistence in an agreed way.

After the madness of the blowout before 2011, and experienced the downturn and dullness since 2012, all the joys and sorrows of this industry, success and failure, rising and falling, they change each other, change each other, change in all changes In the middle, when we record this fast-developing world and record the complicated phenomena, what we need is to work hard to find things that will not be crossed by this tide.

Therefore, to be the most loyal recorder, critic and advocate of this era and industry, this is not only the duty of the media, but also the ideological force that promotes the growth and progress of this industry; according to the laws of the market, rational and constructive Manufacturing, sales and matching, using the latest technology and products, this is the car manufacturer's duty, and the value of the automotive industry to society in the past 129 years.

However, in this era of “not fast enough or slow”, how difficult is it to try to convince yourself that “fast, in fact, is slow” in this era of rampant and fast money?

However, this fast-running, impetuous industry and society are preparing to enter a slow era, with naked swimmers emerging and thick makeup appearing.

And what do you use to greet this slowly unfolding 2015?