The aura of “high subsidy” and “high growth” seems to have become the history of the new energy vehicle market. Judging from the recent data on new energy vehicles, this market is undergoing a test.

The first is the sharp decline in sales growth. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to April 2017, new energy vehicles sold 90,400 units, down 0.2% year-on-year. In the past three years, sales of new energy vehicles were 74,800, 331,000 and 507,000, respectively, up 3.2 times, 3.4 times and 53% over the same period of last year. Compared with the growth data that new energy vehicles have been experiencing multiple times, the sales data this year is extremely ugly.

The "Publication on the Initial Review of the 2016 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Fund" published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (hereinafter referred to as "Publicity") also presents another embarrassing fact that the first round of subsidized vehicles is insufficient. 20% of sales last year. According to the contents of the "Public Information", the number of new energy vehicles announced by enterprises in 2016 was 94,000, and the enterprises applied for clearing funds of 6.415 billion yuan. The number of promotion approved by the expert group was 85,000, and the subsidy fund should be 5.86 billion yuan. Last year, sales of new energy vehicles were 507,000.

After experiencing the “cheat” incident, the state is rectifying the new energy vehicle market through a series of policy measures, while striving to regulate its future development while protecting this industry. "By 2025, when the production and sales of new energy vehicles reach 2 million to 3 million vehicles, China's new energy (10.660, 0.14, 1.33%) automotive industry will become a sunrise industry." Director of Manufacturing Information Division, Information Resource Development Department, National Information Center Li Weili still has full confidence in this market.

Less than 20% of the amount of compensation

“Only 85,000 vehicles met the first round of subsidy standards. The release of this data exceeded my expectations, indicating that the country’s review of new energy vehicles has exceeded expectations significantly,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Information Association.

It is worth noting that the number of models that received the subsidy funds for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in the first round was only 16.77% of the total sales volume last year, and even less than 20% of the total sales volume. Even in terms of the declared number of 94,000 vehicles, it is much lower than expected. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2016, new energy vehicles produced 517,000 vehicles and sold 507,000 vehicles, an increase of 51.7% and 53% respectively over the same period of the previous year.
In addition, Cui Dongshu conducted geographical statistics on this declaration. The statistical results show that even after removing 8 regions that have not yet been declared in Shaanxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guizhou, Jilin, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, and Hainan, Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Shandong, Heilongjiang, etc. have been declared. A province, a municipality and a municipality directly under the Central Government produced a total of 419,900 vehicles last year, with a declaration rate of 23%, which is still low.

In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles last year were concentrated in the second half of the year, which also caused some companies and places to make applications. According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first half of 2016, China's new energy vehicles sold a total of 170,000 units, while sales in the second half of the year were roughly 330,000 units.

According to the "Public Information", a total of 8978 new energy vehicles did not meet the subsidy requirements. Among the reasons for reviewing the nuclear reduction, the problem of concentrated concentration is that the rated power of the battery is inconsistent with the announcement parameters, and the battery cells, battery packs, drive motors and announcement parameters are inconsistent.

Among them, 7,814 passenger cars failed to pass the expert group review, involving a total of 7 models of 5 companies. Among them, SAIC Roewe's CSA7001BEV model (E50) 103 vehicles, because the "pure electric passenger car charging can travel at a time does not meet the national subsidy requirements" did not pass the expert review. In addition, it also includes Jianghuai (iEV5), Haima (Aishang EV), Zhejiang Haoqing (Volvo S60L plug-in), Dongfeng Fengshen (E30 and E30L).

What is puzzling is that Shanghai Huguang Bus Factory, Zoomlion (4.390, 0.00, 0.00%) Co., Ltd. and Changsha Meihua Automobile Manufacturing Co., Ltd. even tried to apply for subsidies for 80 vehicles that are not in the recommended catalog.

30,000 km red line or main cause

The stipulation that “non-individual users have accumulated mileage of 30,000 kilometers to receive subsidies” has become a roadblock for car companies to receive subsidies.

On December 29 last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The cumulative mileage of new energy vehicles purchased by non-private users should exceed 30,000 kilometers. State subsidies, which will be implemented on January 1, 2017. In accordance with the requirements of the Notice, the subsidy standards and technical requirements shall be implemented in accordance with the annual vehicle license.

However, for some new energy garbage trucks, logistics vehicles operating in small and medium-sized cities, and companies or units buying new energy buses for commuting, it takes at least two years to reach the standard of 30,000 kilometers. According to the "2016 China New Energy Vehicle Market Report" data, about 50% of the sales of 52,000 new energy vehicles last year were from company operations or capital operation vehicles, in addition to the proportion of personal consumption. Only 50%. In terms of sales volume, a large number of new energy models that have already been sold are currently unable to meet the requirements of 30,000 kilometers, and no subsidies are available for the time being.

The original intention is to prevent fraudulent policies from increasing the pressure on enterprises. New energy auto companies say they need to pay the fees themselves before they receive financial subsidies.

“After 16 years, many vehicles were produced and sold in the second half of the year, and it is currently unable to reach the 30,000-kilometer target.” Cui Dongshu said that new energy vehicles that are not up to standard should apply for subsidies after reaching the standard, and subsidy standards and technical requirements should be obtained. Execution of the certificate. "This is also a new task for new energy vehicle companies - to mobilize business personnel to sell cars in addition to staring at old customers to quickly run sports cars, or to subsidize customers, the company can not get state subsidies, the days are not good."

People close to policy development said that it is unlikely that the 30,000-kilometre policy will be revised in the short term. The reason is that the mileage requirement has an obvious effect on eliminating the situation of new energy deception. In addition, the change of the dynasty will seriously affect the credibility of the policy. However, Cui Dongshu also said: "I believe that with the replenishment of some regions, as some units purchase cars to reach the 30,000 km index, the amount of subsidies will increase significantly."

Still have development potential

As for the “cool” of the new energy vehicle market after entering 2017, it is related to the policy of subsidizing “regression”. But in the long run, this market still has great potential.

On December 30, 2016, the new mini-energy vehicle subsidy policy jointly issued by the four ministries and commissions began to “retreat” the subsidies for new energy vehicles. However, in Li Weili's view, even if the subsidies are all withdrawn in the future, it will not have much impact on the sales of new energy vehicles. "It is estimated that by 2020, our cost should be reduced by 50% compared with the present. By 2020, it will continue to decline in 2025. Everyone is worried about whether there will be a cliff-like decline in new energy vehicles in 2020 after the subsidy exits. I think it will not, because the cost is falling sharply, it can make up for the withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles." Li Weili said.
In addition, China's new energy vehicle integration policy will also play a positive role in the long-term development of this industry. In September last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the relevant departments studied and drafted the Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points (Draft for Comment), and proposed the average fuel consumption standard and new energy vehicles for passenger vehicle manufacturers. The production ratio is up to standard, and two assessment indicators require the establishment of two points for fuel consumption and new energy vehicles. It is reported that the average fuel consumption limit of auto companies in 2020 will be reduced to 5.0 liters. If they are not up to negative points, enterprises need to pay for the purchase of points or new energy vehicles.

According to the publicity of the average annual fuel consumption of 95 domestic passenger car companies and 27 imported passenger car companies by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, last year, there were 43 car companies with an average fuel consumption exceeding the standard. Some analysts believe that the fuel consumption target of this year and next year is not too difficult to achieve, but after 2018, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers will be reduced by 0.5 liter per year, which is a great challenge. Forecasts show that with the promotion of points, the production scale of new energy vehicles will reach 1.8 million by 2020 to meet the requirements of our country's policies and regulations. This also depicts a huge space for the development of new energy vehicles.

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