After the investigation of the Chinese PVC market trends of concern by the American Chemical Market Association (CMAI) employment industry and whether China will become a net exporter of PVC in the next five years, it was announced last week that the demand for PVC in the Chinese market is still strong, but Imports will gradually decrease, and the long-term dependence on imports will change.
CMAI predicts that China's PVC demand will increase by 8.3%/year from 2005 to 2010, and total demand will reach 11.6 million tons by 2010. By then, China's total PVC demand will account for almost 22% of the world's total PVC demand. In 2000, China's PVC demand was less than 10% of the world total.
CMAI analysis pointed out that in 2005 China's PVC demand will increase by 9.6% on the basis of 2004, PVC production capacity will increase by 35% year-on-year, and by 2006 it will increase by 17%. In 2000, China had 7% of the world's PVC production capacity, but its utilization rate was only 50%. By 2006, China's PVC production capacity will account for 17% of the world's total, and its utilization rate is expected to reach 75%. About 75% of the increased capacity is calcium carbide VCM (vinyl chloride monomer) technology, and ethylene is no longer used as a raw material. Compared with ethylene VCM technology, this technology has lower capital investment and cash costs.
The rapid increase in China's PVC production capacity has also aggravated the competition in the domestic PVC market and increased the downward pressure on the domestic prices of PVC and the level of import prices. New producers want to gain market share, while most PVC importers will turn to domestic suppliers, which will bring more downward pressure on import prices.
The results of the CMAI study indicate that due to the continuous increase in production capacity in China, the market's dependence on imported PVC is decreasing. In 2000, China imported about 1.9 million tons of PVC; with the new production capacity gradually put into production, it is expected that in 2005 China's PVC imports will drop to 1.7 million tons, and will continue to decline. According to CMAI's latest forecast, by 2010, China's PVC imports will fall to 1 million tons, a decrease of 47% from 2000.
CMAI predicts that China's PVC demand will increase by 8.3%/year from 2005 to 2010, and total demand will reach 11.6 million tons by 2010. By then, China's total PVC demand will account for almost 22% of the world's total PVC demand. In 2000, China's PVC demand was less than 10% of the world total.
CMAI analysis pointed out that in 2005 China's PVC demand will increase by 9.6% on the basis of 2004, PVC production capacity will increase by 35% year-on-year, and by 2006 it will increase by 17%. In 2000, China had 7% of the world's PVC production capacity, but its utilization rate was only 50%. By 2006, China's PVC production capacity will account for 17% of the world's total, and its utilization rate is expected to reach 75%. About 75% of the increased capacity is calcium carbide VCM (vinyl chloride monomer) technology, and ethylene is no longer used as a raw material. Compared with ethylene VCM technology, this technology has lower capital investment and cash costs.
The rapid increase in China's PVC production capacity has also aggravated the competition in the domestic PVC market and increased the downward pressure on the domestic prices of PVC and the level of import prices. New producers want to gain market share, while most PVC importers will turn to domestic suppliers, which will bring more downward pressure on import prices.
The results of the CMAI study indicate that due to the continuous increase in production capacity in China, the market's dependence on imported PVC is decreasing. In 2000, China imported about 1.9 million tons of PVC; with the new production capacity gradually put into production, it is expected that in 2005 China's PVC imports will drop to 1.7 million tons, and will continue to decline. According to CMAI's latest forecast, by 2010, China's PVC imports will fall to 1 million tons, a decrease of 47% from 2000.
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